| Cheryl, establish you base-rate; the "everything is perfect" rate. Then we need to determine the "PMS rate" (sorry, I know guys aren't supposed to mention that) and then maybe a "stress rate". My advice would be, if you need the PMS rate, and once you think you are done, go back to the base-rate and determine if that is working. I think right now, you have thrown too much complexity into the mix.
In sports, when teams start to stumble, the best coaches often "dumb things down" or "simplify" things so the players can concentrate on executing and not thinking too much about WHAT they are executing...we need to do the same thing here, let's simplify a bit.
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I'll mend myself before it gets me... | 
