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Hammer

Coronavirus

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Diana_CT

In the town in Connecticut where I live the virus just got a foot hold, we just had our first cases... 9, it doesn't sound like many but we are a small suburb town and New York City is only about 60 miles away with 26,697 confirmed cases. I'm nervous.

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adiantum

I'm nervous too . Theres 18 cases in this region , mostly from cruises & in isolation with the closest living just across the road.

Other neighbours visit them keeping the 1.5 m distance, but to me thats just too close.

They lit an open fire & we are so close that the smoke was filling my office.

 

Ive just been approved for the supermarkets online priority service & gladly submitted an order for the first opportunity which is Monday.

They offered limited range but it still suited my needs...mostly vegetables, eggs, cheese & darn.... I forgot nuts. 

Prices are up with celery $6.90 , mini cabbage $5.90.... but whats a girl to do but be grateful to get any.

They offered no fresh meat or chicken , so the dog & birds miss out.Theres still plenty of chicken breast  in the freezer for the dog.

 

Like you Don, Ive also opted for plastic bags & them to be left outside on the garden table. I'll wash the veges in a bucket of water & vinegar & wipe the other items  with similar water.

 

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dowling gram
4 hours ago, Diana_CT said:

In the town in Connecticut where I live the virus just got a foot hold, we just had our first cases... 9, it doesn't sound like many but we are a small suburb town and New York City is only about 60 miles away with 26,697 confirmed cases. I'm nervous.

 

Follow the recommended guidelines. I do everything I can to protect myself and that makes me less nervous. I grocery shop early in the morning when there are fewer people in the stores. I take alcohol with me to wipe down the cart handle. I don't bring my own bags--in fact our grocery won't pack reusable bags and they can be virus carriers. I use store disposable bags until this thing is over. Other than that I stay at home. This is my 3rd week of staying housebound. With a bit of nice weather I sit on my front porch and read for a while. It's nice to wave to the neighbours while keeping my distance. I knit and use the computer and do those household chores that I've put off. I have a spotless linen closet and cupboards. I keep connected to my family and friends with the phone and texts. I've had long conversations with people I haven't seen in a while. I think that helps them as well as me keep calm when everything around us is chaos. I feel what I'm doing my part to keep others safe too and shortening this pandemic

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Hammer

Some information from the CDC..."The CDC expects that widespread transmission of the new coronavirus will occur, and in the coming months, most of the U.S. population will be exposed to the virus."

 

Another recent study, considered the largest on COVID-19 cases to date, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, analyzed 44,672 confirmed cases in China between Dec. 31, 2019 and Feb. 11, 2020. Of those cases, 80.9% (or 36,160 cases) were considered mild, 13.8% (6,168 cases) severe and 4.7% (2,087) critical.

 

And an update to a post that I made earlier, updated to March 25th, from the earlier post as of March 5th...

The new coronavirus causing COVID-19 has led to more than 454,000 illnesses and more than 20,550 deaths worldwide. For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

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Diana_CT

I have been hibernating for the last three weeks, I only been going to the grocery store once a week, and I have been walking the park when the weather was good. The weather was nice yesterday so after my walk I sat out on the deck reading a book. All the meetings have been canceled or changed to a conference call and I usually do about 8 or 10 guest lectures at local colleges and those have all been canceled.

 

I have been calling family and friends or chatting with them on Facebook. For an introvert this has been heaven.

 

This weekend I want get take-out pizza tonight and seafood tomorrow night.

 

It is not the number of deaths that is causing problems but the rate of infections. In New York City there are over 26,000 cases and if just ten percent of them need hospitalization that is over 2,000 beds and that is the problem. They are shipping non-COVID-19 patients to other hospitals some over 50 miles away to hospitals in Newburgh NY. Here in Connecticut they expect the peak to be in about 2 to 3 weeks, the hospitals in Fairfield county are already fulled to capacity and the National Guard have erected field hospitals to help with the overflow.

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meyery2k

A good (not my investor friend mentioned earlier) was caught travelling when cases blossomed in the US.  Her father had a severe case but I understand he is recovering.  Unfortunately, she is certain she was exposed and had a test.  Results Monday.  I found all this out over text so I was not knowingly exposed to anyone so far.

 

My company is trying to go reduced hours next week to save it.  We have reserves but we don't think it is going to be normal for a while.  We will still have emergency calls and we are considered essential.  We are going to 32 hour work weeks.  I have a small hoard of savings for which I am now grateful since anything can happen.

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TX_Clint

Mike I understand where you are coming from about work and layoffs. I'm so glad that when I was laid off in 2018 I decided to retire. Now I have a steady livable income with SS and pension. I really feel for some of my younger friends that are suddenly worrying about how to meet the bills next month with only unemployment to rely on. Thank goodness the CARES relief package will not only give a one time payout but will also increase unemployment compensation. 

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meyery2k

Another big help that is already in play is that Parent Plus student loan holders can get forbearance on payments for 12 months.  That and no interest really adds to an interest free loan even though it extends the payout another year (which it really doesn't since I am not making payments).  That makes up my hours.  While my mortgage offers a similar plan, I am paying that for now since interest would still accrue.

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Hammer

I was watching some news stories, as well as reading some, and it seems that a researcher has developed a new test that tests for the coronavirus, and it only takes less than 10 minutes for the results, as opposed to the present method that takes days.

 

Also, they have found that taking plasma from people who had the virus and recovered, then injecting it in people who are in critical condition with the virus, recover from it very rapidly.  That sounds promising, and it reminds me of the movie "The Omega Man", with Charlton Heston....taking his blood, since his body couldn't be infected, and injecting it into those who were infected, to cure them.

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adiantum

Thats the test that theyre using here now.

 

It reminded me of the test the vet used to  check my dogs blood for heartworm.

It cost me $75 but worth it for the relief I had knowing he was OK

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TX_Clint

My doggie gets checked annually. 

I hear the Chinese tests were very inaccurate just like their case counts.

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ran23

Also had to switch to the store bags, and I noticed they are not charging for them.  celery?  $1.69 US a pound. 

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don1942

The new COVID-19 test is from healthcare technology maker Abbott that looks to be the fastest yet in terms of producing results, and that can do so on the spot right at point-of-care, without requiring a round trip to a lab. This test for the novel coronavirus causing the current global pandemic has received emergency clearance for use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and will begin production next week, with output of 50,000 per day possible starting next week.

The new Abbott ID NOW COVID-19 test uses the Abbott ID NOW diagnostics platform, which is essentially a lab-in-a-box that is roughly the size of a small kitchen appliance. Its size and that it can produce either a positive result in just five minutes or a negative one in under 15 mean that it could be a very useful means to extend coronavirus testing beyond its current availability to more places including clinics and doctor's offices, and cut down on wait times both in terms of getting tested and receiving a diagnosis.

Unlike the rapid tests that have been used in other countries, and that received a new type of authorization under an FDA guideline that doesn't confirm the accuracy of the results, this rapid testing solution uses the molecular testing method, which works with saliva and mucus samples swabbed from a patient. This means that it works by identifying a portion of the virus's RNA in a patient, which means it's much better at detecting the actual presence of the virus during infection, whereas other tests that search the blood for antibodies that are used in point-of-care settings can only detect antibodies, which might be present in recovered patients who don't actively have the virus.

The good news for availability of this test is that ID NOW, the hardware from Abbott that it runs on, already "holds the largest molecular point-of-care footprint in the U.S.," and is "widely available" across doctor's offices, urgent care clinics, emergency rooms and other medical facilities.

In total, Abbott now says that it believes it will produce 5 million tests in April, split between these new rapid tests and the lab tests that it received emergency use authorization for by the FDA on March 1

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adiantum

 

 Deaths by age & gender In Australia..

 

60 to 69 yrs  1 male

70 to 79 yrs   5 males   3 females
80 to 89 yrs   3 males 1 female
over 90 ... 1 female  
16 total  which includes  3 cruise ship passengers, 3 nursing homes residents  & 1 contracted it whilst in hospital 

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Hammer

Lee, by comparison, "In Australia, influenza on average causes 1,500 to 3,000 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 GP consultations each year."  Which sounds worse to you, this coronavirus, or the flu?  This reference was taken from here.

Edited by Hammer

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adiantum

The coronavirus has greater potential to spread further &  kill quicker.

Your stats are 12 years ago  , surely we practice improved hygiene & social skills since then.

 

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Diana_CT

It is the rate increase of inflections not the yearly total of infections.

 

In Fairfield county next to New York City they went 0 infections to over a 1200 in two weeks. As of yesterday there were 189 hospitalized cases in the country which has outstripped the total capacity of all the hospital bed in the county, the National Guard has set up hospital tents for the non-COVID-19 patients. In New York City the army has set up field hospitals in Central Park and the navy sent a 1000 bed hospital ship to NYC

 

Hammer you quote, "In Australia, influenza on average causes 1,500 to 3,000 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 GP consultations each year.” The COVID-19 doing all its damage in one month not twelve so far.

 

It is di/dt, the change in infections divided by the change in time that is the problem. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year, the COVID-19 in about 3 months there are 732,153 infections and 34,686 deaths around the world.

 

Notice that at the beginning of March the number of cases in the U.S. was just about 0 cases and now it is 140,000 cases

virus+3-30.png

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

 

It is overwhelming our healthcare systems, don't focus on the yearly totals focus on the daily increase and the capacity of our healthcare systems.

 

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Hammer

Yes, the coronavirus is more contagious than the flu, but it doesn't kill more people than the flu does.  The fact that more people die quicker from the coronavirus is misleading.  When you consider than the coronavirus has killed X number of people, how many of those same people would have died if they just caught the flu?  The coronavirus isn't more dangerous than the flu, it is just more contagious than the flu, but if you don't have other health issues, then the coronavirus won't kill you, and most likely, will be very mild on it's affect on you.  This is what I've been trying to say....that the coronavirus isn't that bad, as compared to the flu.  The news media is trying to convince people that it is the next Spanish Flu, which it is not.  The coronavirus isn't going to kill millions of people, like the Spanish Flu did back in 1918, it's just another type of flu.

 

Let me say this....come June or July, let's see if this coronavirus is still a big thing.  I bet that it won't be, and when it dies off, like most other flu's do, no one will be talking about it.  If I am wrong, then bring me to task for it, but I doubt that it will still be a big thing, come June or July.  People are reacting to it, because the news media is presenting it like it's going to wipe out most of the world's population.  That will never happen.....it's just a different form of the flu, for God's sake!  It's not going to kill you unless you are old, and have a weakened immune system, and even then, it still might not kill you...geez...it's just another type of the flu!

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Diana_CT

You are right, in June or July it will have passed us by (I hope) and the virus will hopefully be just a memory, but I am not talking about deaths from them rather what is happening now... 
The hospital ship in NYC and field hospital in Central Park is not for June or July but for now!
The 33,000 cases in NYC are overwhelming the healthcare systems now!
Healthcare providers here in Connecticut have been working 13 hours days for over a week now!
My sister-in-law who is a retired nurse who retired eight years ago got a call from the Department of Public Health asking if she could come back to work, not in June or July but now!

 

You are right about percentage of those who have succumbed to flu and COVID-19 they are about equal but it is not about the percentage of deaths it is about overloading the healthcare system. Look at the graph, the curve doesn’t start until the beginning of March and then it becomes exponential. 

 

Maybe it is not a problem down in Texas but here in Connecticut when I drove by the hospital last Monday they were setting up field hospital tents not for June or July but because they need the room now, they are already putting non-COVID-19 patients in them. There are 404 COVID-19 patients and that is in addition to the regular patients and in the whole state of Connecticut there are around 200 ICU beds.

 

They are doing triage in the parking lot… you broke your arm you go to the field tents; you have the virus you can have a hospital bed. The system is being saturated.
 

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don1942

According to the CDC, among the first reported cases in the US, around 40 percent of the patients that required hospitalization were between the ages of 20 and 54,

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TX_Clint
4 hours ago, Hammer said:

Yes, the coronavirus is more contagious than the flu, but it doesn't kill more people than the flu does. 

Hammer the fatality rate for the coronavirus is currently running at 18%. This number is calculated from the number of cases that result in death divided by the total number of cases that are resolved in either death or getting well.  Now I do expect that number to come down in time as people die sooner (about 14 days from onset) than those that get well (about twice as long in some cases). However, based on the data we have now (suspect data I know) this is much deadlier than the flu but due to actions like social distancing it has not been more contagious than the flu. It has the potential to spread more if no action is taken to prevent it. This does scare me enough to take precautions to prevent getting the virus. I don't like a 82% survival rate.

When I've gone to the pharmacy or grocer I take some easy but not normal precautions. I do the distance while I'm out but when I get home I strip upon entering the back door and the clothes go straight into the washer. Then I go straight to the shower.

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meyery2k

Mark Twain, I believe, said "Figures don't lie, but liar's figure"...

 

Using Worldometer as a source, one can see a perfect example of an exponential increase in cases on either a worldwide, regional, or country basis.  This is expected because, if the theories are correct, humans are immunologically naive to this strain of coronavirus.  Humans have a somewhat built in resistance to influenza.  We see spikes when the virus mutates enough to be more infective or causes stronger symptoms.  This is why diseases like measles and smallpox wiped out New World populations.  These had been circulating throughout the Old World and populations in the New World were naive to these viruses.

 

The stats are sobering.  We are still early into this (I think) and will likely see some markedly downward trends as this begins to burn out and we, hopefully, take good measure to keep from spreading it.

 

As of March 30, estimated TOTAL cases (resolved or not) was 752,854.  Of those, 194,999 have resolved (158,769 have recovered and 36,230 died).  So when looking strictly at resolved cases, the mortality rate is 18%.  Frightening but, as Clint pointed out, it is not the big picture.  5% of total cases are considered serious/critical.  That doesn't necessarily mean a non-serious case can't become serious though.  Statistically speaking we have some very useful information that can either enlighten or frighten.  I suspect the high mortality rate is the older, weaker, immunologically challenged will die first.  Age does not protect anyone.  We have a case here in Honolulu where a 39 y/o male in good health is on a ventilator.  Like Clint pointed out, the mortality rate would be expected to decrease as the vast majority of cases resolve.

 

I think comparing COVID and influenza is not an accurate comparison.  Influenza is always in the background and, as pointed out earlier, we have some built in resistance.  Yes, people get ill and die from it just like many other things but it is not at this level.  We are seeing an example of what happens to a naive species when a new virus with high communicability rates and moderate mortality rates hits a population.  COVID 19 is here to stay.  Eventually, as a species, we will adapt to it and it should be less severe.  There is still some question as to whether immunity of those recovered is lifelong or short term.

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Hammer

The reason that I keep comparing the coronavirus to the flu is because, the flu kills thousands of people every year, but we don't shut the country down every year when it's flu season, so why shut it down for the coronavirus?  We KNOW that the flu kills lots of people, but we act as if it's not that big of a deal, so why act as if this new virus is a big deal?...because it's new?  I will venture to say that this coronavirus will not kill more people than the flu does every year.  Sure, I could be wrong, but I doubt it.  Think about it...considering the fact that the people that are dying from the coronavirus are mainly elderly people with other health issues, if it wasn't for the coronavirus, had these same people contracted the flu, would they still have died?  Most likely, so the death toll from the flu would be higher if it wasn't for the coronavirus killing these people.

 

Something else about the coronavirus....why impose these shutdowns and closures for weeks on end?  They say that doing so, will prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients.  Okay, so what happens when they reopen the country in a week or so from now?  Won't the hospitals be overwhelmed then?  They say that a vaccine is years away at best, so what happens in a few weeks when everything opens back up?  All they are doing by having these shutdowns and closures is postponing the inevitable, all the while, bankrupting businesses, forcing layoffs, increasing unemployment, and creating havoc in families that have kids. (the kids can't go to school or daycare, so their parents have to stay home from work to watch them, making it impossible for their employers to conduct business.)

 

My whole point of starting this thread was to try and show that I think that the world is over reacting to this COVID-19.  Is it bad?  Yes.  Is it worse than the flu?  No.  Just like the flu, if you are healthy, the coronavirus won't kill you, heck, it might just be a mild case and it won't have much of an effect on you, so what's all the panic about?....the potential of what the coronavirus can do, or what it's actually doing?

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