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Hammer

Coronavirus

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Diana_CT

“Is it bad?”
It is a feaking plague!

 

I understand where you are coming from it is not bad there you don’t see the panic and the hopelessness in people eyes. You don't see the road blocks the Rhode Island set up to stop out-of-staters from entering the state. 


You don’t see the health officials on television calling for retired nurses to come back to work or bring in student nurses and student doctors to help, you don’t see the local nurses leaving the hospital after a week of 13 hour days and you don’t drive by your local hospital and see the military field hospital tents. 

 

In January I had a meeting at the hospital where they set up the field hospital, it is not in some far away state but only miles form my house.

 

field+tent.jpg

 

"The mobile field hospital was set up with the assistance of the Governor’s Foot and Horse Guard in just 6 hours and has a 25 bed capacity – roughly the same as one floor of the hospital." (Photo from CT Public Radio)

 

Just in one small part of the small state of Connecticut there are more cases than in Dallas and Houston. And each day the blob of red dots on the map slowly is heading towards my house. I expect the number of cases where I live to reach epidemic levels next week and frankly I am scared s**tless. Besides diabetes, I am 71 years old and have another health problem that puts me into the very high risk group, I intend to hibernate for 21 days when the infection levels increase in town.
 

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dowling gram
On 3/29/2020 at 2:07 AM, Hammer said:

I was watching some news stories, as well as reading some, and it seems that a researcher has developed a new test that tests for the coronavirus, and it only takes less than 10 minutes for the results, as opposed to the present method that takes days.

 

Also, they have found that taking plasma from people who had the virus and recovered, then injecting it in people who are in critical condition with the virus, recover from it very rapidly.  That sounds promising, and it reminds me of the movie "The Omega Man", with Charlton Heston....taking his blood, since his body couldn't be infected, and injecting it into those who were infected, to cure them.

 

If the powers that be are smart they won't be opening up things until the rate of infection decreases. Right now we are climbing a mountain of infection and it keeps going up. When that mountain flattens it means fewer people are getting infected and it's safer to let people mingle a bit. I hope the way back is gradual. In any case you won't see me mingling until well after that happens. I heard the man talking that was cured with that malaria drug. He was not old and was on death's door when the doctors told him that they wanted to try that experiment. He said he felt like he was drowning and agreed. That drug is powerful and can kill but because he had no other medical conditions they offered it to him  and it worked but it is not a cure for everyone.

 

When they do loosen restrictions those who have had the coronavirus and recovered will be immune to it but unless they test everyone there may be some who have it and don't know they have it because some people are carriers of coronavirus. I won't take a chance that I might meet them.

 

Influenza may kill if you get pneumonia but it is not as transmissible as coronavirus and it may or may not result in Pneumonia. Coronavirus is easily caught and it immediately attacks the lungs. It kills the young as well as the elderly. They are seeing more people under 40 with no existing health problems getting it and some dying as a result. Something that wouldn't happen with the Flu.

 

 

 

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adiantum

Diana you have every reason to be scared.I could never have imagined our world to be in such dire straights.

If a movie had been made depicting this crisis , I'd not watch it believing it to be too far fetched.

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Diana_CT

I just came across two articles about the virus.

 

The first is an analysis of the virus in Connecticut...

ANALYSIS | The Geography of Pandemic in Connecticut & Researchers Expect Peak Here On April 10

And the other is an article in USA Today...

The coronavirus test that wasn’t: How federal health officials misled state scientists and derailed the best chance at containment

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meyery2k

Probably going out on a limb here but this is my understanding of things...

 

Looking at the total amount of existing cases, the mortality rate is just under 5%.  This is comparable to the 1918 influenza.  There are many articles on how devastating that pandemic was.  This was before air travel and truly international trade were commonplace.  There are documented facts where cities that practiced some form of distancing fared better than those that did not.

 

Hospitals have never been able to effectively deal with large amounts of illness concentrated at one time.  Especially cases requiring intensive support.  There is simply not enough staff or equipment on hand.

 

This is a simplistic analogy and not meant to offend but I think the strategy here is to have people interact as little as necessary.  This will not completely prevent us from exposure.  Most of us will have a mild form of this.  Those that go on to have a form that requires treatment may be able to get it since the case load would be less at a given period of time.  What I am trying to say is that a small community might expect 250 cases that require specialized care.  They can't handle that all at one time and many would die.  With less contact, that 250 might be spread out over 30 or 60 days and there would be a better outcome since specialized services would be available to a greater number of that caseload.  This is my best understanding of flattening the curve.  There is going to be some "suck factor" and we can either take it all at once or spread it out.  In this case, spreading it out would seem to be the better strategy.

 

I randomly chose the stats from the 2014-2015 influenza data for the US.  There were an estimated 30M cases.  14.4M cases required a medical visit.  Of these, 590K (4%) required hospitalization.  There were an estimated 51K deaths (.003%).  This was spread out over one year and demonstrates what we know.  The flu is a common illness and usually not a problem for an otherwise healthy person.  It is also a primarily upper respiratory illness.  Severe COVID seems to have an affinity for cells in the lungs.  A bad place to be attacked in the human body.  The upper respiratory system has many safeguards to protect the lungs since they are quite delicate.  COVID has already killed over 3K in less than 3 months (assuming first case is 1/20) in the US.  Almost 10% of what a typical year of the flu is concentrated in this time period.  Again, many of these people likely required extra care to try and save them.  These stats follow an exponential curve so we cannot extrapolate that 3K dying in 3 months will equate to 12K in a year.  

 

Seeing what is happening in Italy, Spain, and other countries is sobering. 

 

 

 

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TX_Clint

I totally agree with your analysis of the situation Mike. However, you initial stat of 

31 minutes ago, meyery2k said:

Looking at the total amount of existing cases, the mortality rate is just under 5%.

That isn't actually the mortality rate. You are using the total deaths divided by the total cases. That is wrong. We don't know how many of the total current cases will result in death. You need to look at resolved cases. Those that survive and are well plus those that die. Unresolved cases shouldn't come into the equation. That percentage is currently 39545 deaths / (172869 recovered plus 39545 deaths) resulting in 18.6%. Scary number. Yes there are 823479 cases to date. But we don't know how many of those people will recover or die as the cases haven't been resolved one way or another. True there is a time element that needs to be factored. How long is it from when a person is infected till they die and how long until they are well. If we consider this and guess that double the number of people will recover given time we are still at a fatality rate of over 9%. Still too high for comfort.

My take of all this is we can only personally control our chances of getting the virus. So I take all the measures I possible can to protect myself and the wife from infection.

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meyery2k

@TX_Clint - Yes.  You are correct.  I was being sloppy with the figures.  I hope we would see that percentage come down as more cases resolve.  Yes, I did simply take resolved data and put it into unresolved data and came up with an incorrect result.

 

Yes, either way we look at this, this is a significant pandemic.

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ran23

Regarding Italy, I have read that there was a big construction project that Chinese were working on.   Workers came from Wuhan. back and forth.  this is from a big Cancer site. 

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adiantum

A new trend in trying to escape corona is cashed up city dwellers are moving out of the city until it's safe to return.

Theyre   buying country houses & even taking on long & short term rentals . This not only depletes the available housing for regular residents ,but it puts the rural communities into  risks as they carry the virus with them .

These small regions medical systems  just cant cope with such an influx .

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Hammer

Here's a good article to read about the coronavirus, since it's dated today, April 1st.  I mention it here because it gives up to date statistics.  One that I thought would be the case is..."So far, around 20 per cent of Covid-19 cases have been classed as "severe" and the current death rate varies between 0.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent depending on the location and, crucially, access to good hospital care."

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buddy7
21 hours ago, Diana_CT said:

“Is it bad?”
It is a feaking plague!

 

I understand where you are coming from it is not bad there you don’t see the panic and the hopelessness in people eyes. You don't see the road blocks the Rhode Island set up to stop out-of-staters from entering the state. 


You don’t see the health officials on television calling for retired nurses to come back to work or bring in student nurses and student doctors to help, you don’t see the local nurses leaving the hospital after a week of 13 hour days and you don’t drive by your local hospital and see the military field hospital tents. 

 

In January I had a meeting at the hospital where they set up the field hospital, it is not in some far away state but only miles form my house.

 

field+tent.jpg

 

"The mobile field hospital was set up with the assistance of the Governor’s Foot and Horse Guard in just 6 hours and has a 25 bed capacity – roughly the same as one floor of the hospital." (Photo from CT Public Radio)

 

Just in one small part of the small state of Connecticut there are more cases than in Dallas and Houston. And each day the blob of red dots on the map slowly is heading towards my house. I expect the number of cases where I live to reach epidemic levels next week and frankly I am scared s**tless. Besides diabetes, I am 71 years old and have another health problem that puts me into the very high risk group, I intend to hibernate for 21 days when the infection levels increase in town.
 

No one on earth could've, to predate this was going to happen, a mass epidemic with the loss of so many lives throughout the world, my thoughts and prayers go out to every human being, town, city and country, across the globe who are currently suffering, in Hospitals, field Hospitals, makeshift Hospitals, wherever, and the complete inability caused by the process of being lock-down to most countries. To everyone, one can only hope this coronavirus comes to an end soon. The suffering, the fatalities grows every passing day.

 

The UK 25,150 Cases. Deaths 1,789

The Donald predicts over 100,000 people will die because of the coronavirus. Paints a dreadful picture.

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Diana_CT
4 hours ago, adiantum said:

A new trend in trying to escape corona is cashed up city dwellers are moving out of the city until it's safe to return.

Theyre   buying country houses & even taking on long & short term rentals . This not only depletes the available housing for regular residents ,but it puts the rural communities into  risks as they carry the virus with them .

These small regions medical systems  just cant cope with such an influx .

That is why that the state of Rhode Island put up roadblocks to stop New Yorkers from going to their vacation homes. Vigilantes were threatening to block the bridges on to Cape Cod. 

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Hammer

I ordered a product a few weeks ago, and looking at the tracking information, it's being shipped from China, which I didn't know when I bought it.  I guess it will never come, since I would imagine that all mail from China has been stopped.  I can't help but wonder....if all shipments from China have been stopped, since tons of things here in the US comes from China, I wonder what that is going to result in?

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meyery2k
20 minutes ago, Diana_CT said:

This is what a leader sounds like.

Wow!  I almost forgot.

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meyery2k

Today was not a good day on the Coronavirus news...

 

This guy needs to learn social distancing.  No matter how fast I ride, he keeps up!

 

Image may contain: outdoor

 

 

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Hammer

I've been reading news articles that have mentioned that, with the coronavirus, and people panic buying, that, since the store shelves are empty of certain items (toilet paper, paper towels, soap, etc.), that there has been an increase of people being robbed as they put their groceries in their cars.  It seems that gangs are watching people exit a grocery store, following the person to their cars, then robbing them of what they bought.  This is the beginning of civil unrest, and I feel that if this were to continue, we'd see a complete breakdown of society, but I don't think that will happen in the near future.  The thing is, this is yet another reason why a lot of us are armed....we need to be armed to protect ourselves, especially when you are a senior citizen.  This is not an attempt to revive the gun thread, so please don't take it to mean that.  All I am saying is that, those of you who are anti-gun, need to see why a lot of us are pro-gun.  Being armed might be the only way to protect yourself in times like these.

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Diana_CT

This is going around on Facebook... Just goes to show you that there is nothing new under the sun or "been there done that."

 

1918.jpg

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Hammer
1 hour ago, Diana_CT said:

This is going around on Facebook... Just goes to show you that there is nothing new under the sun or "been there done that."

 

1918.jpg

 

 

D.W. Sutherland?  I wonder if he was related to Donald Sutherland, the actor?😊

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